Iberdrola is in Trump's crosshairs – so what now for developer in 'stable, predictable' US?
ANALYSIS | The global power giant has been swept up in the President's offshore wind vendetta but a focus on networks means it's got other fish to fry, say experts
Back in July, Iberdrola said it was doubling down on its strategy to focus investments in countries with “stable, predictable and incentivising frameworks” – and cited the US as an example.
The news about New England Wind, being developed by Iberdrola’s US unit Avangrid, produced a very different reaction on the bourses of Europe to similar assaults on Orsted’s American offshore developments.
Disclosure by Trump officials that they will move to revoke permits for New England Wind projects, by contrast, prompted barely a flicker to the Spanish giant’s share price.
Focus shifts to networks
While Sunrise and Revolution are critical planks of the Danish group’s global portfolio, Iberdrola has bigger fish to fry when it comes to the US in the form of transmission and distribution.
Iberdrola executive chairman Ignacio Galan in March met US energy secretary Chris Wright to talk about a potential $20bn of grid investments by the end of the decade, adding to its $50bn of existing American assets – 80% of it in transmission.
“Moreover, most of Iberdrola’s networks in the US are distribution businesses whose rates and investments are negotiated with the states where they operate – namely, Maine, New Hampshire, and New York.”
Fulop added that Iberdrola “already reduced its US renewables investments, stating last February that it will not sanction any new renewables projects in the country in 2025".
Another key difference noted by commentators is that compared to Orsted’s projects, and indeed Equinor’s Empire Wind – which was halted and allowed to resume after an apparent change of heart by Trump – the New England Wind projects are much less advanced.
That should mean minimal impact to the Spanish group, which could like others such as RWE and TotalEnergies sit tight with its leases and see if the policy wind changes.
More bad news for US offshore wind
If the revocation sticks, however, analysts said it adds to the general air of disarray surrounding the industry under Trump, with Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia OW project and Iberdrola’s own Vineyard Wind with CIP hoping they will like Empire Wind be allowed to limp to the finish line.
“However, I would argue that the news does not materially impact the current US outlook, as we do not expect developers to make any final investment decisions in the US until 2029, at the earliest. The current administration has shown that it will go far in stopping projects that are already permitted or even far into the construction stage, and we expect developers to shy away from making further investments into a sector that is riddled with high risk.”
BloombergNEF analyst Atin Jain also noted that New England Wind had been swept up in the “extraordinary nature of the current crackdown” against offshore wind in the US.
Jain said: “This isn’t about Iberdrola – it’s a project-agnostic posture. The current moves raise sector-wide uncertainty for US offshore wind rather than singling out any one developer.”