'This isn't over' | Industry watcher warns on Trump versus Revolution Wind
Analyst said while the court ordered construction restart is a boost, the president’s hostility continues to threaten both offshore wind farm project and sector
Monday's court ruling enabling construction restart of Orsted’s massive Revolution Wind offshore wind project is a boon to the developer and the industry, but experts warn “this isn’t over yet” given President Donald Trump’s ongoing hostility.
It’s “fantastic” that Orsted can now finish the project, said Philip Totaro, CEO of research consultancy IntelStor. But “this isn’t over yet,” he warned.
The government could appeal the decision and pending litigation against the project “could expose them to construction being halted again, but for non-compliance with other permits that were issued,” he said.
While Trump's Inauguration Day memorandum put approved projects under review with a goal of termination, industry watchers widely assumed those in advanced construction would move forward. The stop work order trashed that confidence.
Analysts were impressed with the strength of Judge Royce Lamberth’s comments during Monday’s hearing.
Lamberth slammed Department of Justice (DoJ) attorneys for their inconsistent justifications for the order, describing them as “the height of arbitrary and capricious”, and criticized the lack of evidence for national security concerns. DoJ defends the government in litigation.
Lamberth agreed that cancellation of the $5bn project and $1bn in penalties would do “irreparable harm” to the partners, which stood to earn $200-$250m annually from its power purchase agreements.
Roald Hartvigsen, vice president at Clarksons Securities said, “the strength of the court’s language exceeds expectations and, in our view, provides increased confidence that the Revolution Wind project will be allowed to reach completion.”
Judge Lamberth was appointed by former Republican President Ronald Reagan in 1987.
Signe Sorensen, senior analyst and Americas lead for research intelligence firm Aegir Insights, said the ruling “greatly increases confidence that the projects in construction will go ahead.”
This “makes it likely that there is an offshore wind sector, however small and inactive, in the US post-Trump,” she added.
Despite the promise, neither the project nor the industry are in the clear.
Risks continue
The administration halt of Equinor's 810MW Empire wind last April was an early sign that even projects under construction could be stopped.
The project was allowed to restart four weeks later, with many claiming New York governor Kathy Hochul's greenlighting of a controversial natural gas pipeline was the deciding factor, a claim Hochul denies.
Revolution also faces litigation including the suit by activist group Green Oceans that sparked the stop work order.
DoI responded to the DC District Court's ruling by stating its coastal regulator Bureau of Ocean Energy Management will continue “its investigation into possible impacts by the project to national security and prevention of other uses on the Outer Continental Shelf.”
DoI “remains committed to ensuring that prior decisions are legally and factually sound,” Interior secretary Doug Burgum said.