Labour promised to make the UK a clean energy superpower: can it deliver?
'Immediate decisions' need to be made if Labour is to turn its green energy ambitions into reality
Keir Starmer steps into 10 Downing Street as the UK’s new Prime Minister having made bold promises to double onshore wind, treble solar and quadruple offshore wind by 2030, by which time it wants to kick fossil fuels off the grid entirely.
Leo Bertels, managing consultant at renewables consultancy BVG Associates, said the renewables sector will “likely welcome today’s result” given Labour’s seemingly clear ambition to “drive forward the UK’s clean energy transition”.
Frankie Mayo, senior energy and climate analyst at UK energy think tank Ember, said that if Labour can achieve its “ambitious decarbonisation targets” and the UK can “once again lead on clean power deployment.”
“The challenge now is translating targets into action quickly enough after several years of muddled policy signals have stagnated progress.”
Greenpeace UK’s co-executive director, Areeba Hamid, said Labour’s “landslide victory has buried Sunak’s divisive anti-green agenda once and for all and is a powerful call for change.”
“Voters have resoundingly rejected his climate rollbacks and elected a party with a proper plan to turbocharge cheap, clean, renewable energy.”
Will Labour put its ‘hand in the pocket’ for offshore wind?
Labour was last in power in 2010, long before the Conservatives launched the Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme that helped make the UK a world leader in offshore wind, the crowning green power achievement of their 14-year tenure.
Bertels said that new energy secretary Ed Miliband now has an “immediate decision” to make concerning the UK’s upcoming CfD auction, AR6 – namely whether to stick or twist on the budget before the 1 August deadline.
After the disastrous failure of the last edition, in which no offshore wind developers bid, the Conservatives more than tripled the budget for such projects to £800m ($1bn) and dramatically upped the strike price to fend off another failure.
Bertels said industry will be "looking closely at Labour’s decisions on AR6 for signs of whether this new government is ready to put its hand in its pocket to accelerate fixed offshore wind deployment and kickstart the UK floating offshore wind industry.”
Duncan Clark, head of UK and Ireland at Danish renewables giant Orsted, said the new government can "make a clear statement of intent and start delivering that increased ambition in the first few weeks" through the budget.
"The prize on offer is huge – developers and the supply chain are ready now with projects to invest over £20bn in the UK and its supply chain: by increasing the AR6 budget the new government has an opportunity to match this potential investment with bold action."
BVG managing director Bruce Valpy cautions that while “faster progress” is expected in renewables under Labour, industry knows the UK "won’t reach even [the] existing" offshore wind target of 50GW by 2030 due to grid and supply chain limitations.
Labour must 'unlock' onshore wind
Another “quick and easy win” for the new government will Bertels said be the “promised, and long-overdue, unlocking of onshore wind” in England.
Former Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron all but banned onshore wind in England in 2015 through a rule that allowed even one objection to a wind farm to stop it progressing – effectively killing off the sector for what is now nearing a decade.
Miliband has vowed to scrap the de facto ban still in place, which will of course be necessary if he wants to deliver on doubling the UK’s onshore wind capacity from around 15GW today by 2030, and Bertels said if it does this it will immediately “burnish Labour’s green credentials.”
Susanna Elks, senior policy advisor at climate change think tank E3G, said it will be a “defining moment when the de-facto ban on onshore wind is finally lifted.”
The ban “added billions to household bills” during the energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, she said, and there is “considerable support for onshore wind in England.”
Clark said he welcomed Labour's "intention to unlock onshore wind" in England. "As an industry we stand ready to work with government to ensure that projects are delivered at the pace needed and in a way which is sensitive to local environment and communities."
Can new government ‘rewire Britain’
All the wind power in the world will be for naught if the UK does not push through the massive grid upgrades needed to bring that green energy to peoples’ homes and businesses.
The UK National Grid says it is currently carrying out the largest overhaul of the electricity grid in generations, but this is being hindered by fierce opposition from locals who would rather keep pylons and other inconvenient but necessary infrastructure ‘out of sight, out of mind.’
It is expected Labour will nevertheless take a more bullish approach to pushing past local opposition that was often pandered to by Conservative ministers, whose rural constituencies were often where tensions ran highest.
“There is a lot to do on transmission,” both grids and interconnectors, said Valpy. “But it is key.”
The UK cut its reliance on coal to “almost nothing” in five years and will for the first time in 2024 get more electricity from wind than gas. “But to keep going towards net zero” he said much more progress needs to be made on extending the transmission system to incorporate new green infrastructure.
Elks said the UK “has done this type of expansion in the past and now needs to again,” emphasising that Labour must think about how to “fairly consider the concerns of local communities" and minimise the environmental impact of new grid capacity.
GB Energy: ‘A big question mark’
Another flagship Labour policy has been the creation of a national clean energy provider, GB Energy, backed up with £8.3bn of state funds over the five-year parliament to help turbo-charge the country’s green transition.
But Valpy said GB Energy “seems undercapitalised to make much of a difference" in areas including offshore wind and "instead risks muddying the waters.”
For reference, British energy company SSE is planning to spend £20.5bn in the five years running up to 2027; while National Grid plans a £30bn spree in the UK from 2024-2026.
Bertels agrees there “remains a big question mark” over GB Energy and the role it will play in the UK’s energy transition, including whether it will be a project developer or an investor.
Ensuring it is a “capable organisation which offers value not already provided by private industry, while at the same time not unduly distorting the competitive landscape will be a very tricky thing to get right.”
But whatever the question marks over how to implement its green agenda, Greenpeace’s Hamid said Starmer “must seize the opportunities for economic revival and energy independence that delivering a greener, cleaner Britain presents.”
“This is the change people voted for – it’s time for Starmer to deliver.”
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