After latest Trump attack on Orsted: How can wind industry face down its arch enemy?
Donald Trump will not cease his attacks on the wind and solar industries – unless someone intervenes.
A few weeks ago, I wrote in Recharge what now seems glaringly obvious: Trump will not stop targeting wind producers. If industry leaders wish to end this assault on renewables, they must confront him directly.
Last week, the conflict intensified, almost beyond belief:
- First, Trump tweeted on Wednesday that wind and solar are the “scam of the century.”
- The same day he confirmed that his administration will not approve any wind or solar projects.
- On Thursday, the US launched a “national security threat” probe into imported wind turbines.
- On Friday afternoon Revolution Wind, an 80% finished project with all approved permits, received a stop working-order. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management referred to “national security concerns”.
If you believe Trump is now finished attacking the industry, think again.
An analysis by Atlas Public Policy, quoted by Financial Times on Saturday, indicates that nearly $19bn worth of renewable projects has been stopped since Trump came to power again.
A cut in renewables will most likely increase the value of the more expensive and less effective fossil fuels.
The law does not matter to Trump
This war is not going away. While Sydbank analyst Jacob Pedersen rightly notes that few projects are located on federal land, he also warns that Trump’s threats are not idle. He could obstruct projects on private land, particularly those near national parks.
The attack on Revolution Wind takes the fight to another level. Now, Trump is targeting projects with every permit intact. Unless someone stands up, he will just keep going until there's nothing left.
Trump excels at deflection and diversion – whether concealing a scandal, delaying legal proceedings, or launching frivolous lawsuits against media outlets. He often “wins” by forcing settlements out of court. This behaviour is rewarded and, predictably, repeated. It is basic psychology.
It does not matter to Trump if the stop order has legal basis or not. He does not seek permission for anything. He is indifferent to legality, provided no one objects. He responds only to two things: personal gain or forceful opposition. The wind industry possesses only the latter, if even that.
Equinor did stand up to him regarding their Empire Wind project, and the administration backed down after a significant diplomatic effort from Norway's government. Now, Trump has launched his candidacy for the Nobel Peace Prize. Perhaps Empire Wind was spared simply because it is Norwegian?
Denmark can not offer a peace prize. It is hard to imagine that they will offer up anything at Greenland in order to save Orsted's business in the US, should there be a political summit between Trump and the Danish prime minister, Mette Fredriksen.
Trump responds to strength – does the industry posess it?
So, what should the industry do?
We know how Trump reacts to criticism – it will not be pleasant. This may for instance explain the EU’s submissive posture, hoping the storm will pass and Trump will not simply hand Ukraine to Russia.
Trump appears to respond to strength. The question is: does the renewables industry possess it?
We need to find out. One option is to take him to court, as much as possible. Trump is a bully, and bullies thrive when noone opposes them.
That means that more companies must do what Equinor did: stand up for their own projects.
Can a moratorium on federal land also be challenged? It can be argued that Trump then puts the nation at risk, as electricity demand may not be met by supply. He also damages the wind companies with his slander.
One thing the industry must not do is stand by in silence as the attacks worsen. It will only tell Trump that whatever he wants to take from this industry, he can.
Meanwhile, Trump might be helping China get a potentially unassailable lead in clean energy technologies.
His moratorium targets technologies that account for over 90% of new production capacity in the US. Electricity demand is rising across several states. Given the limitations of oil and gas, renewables will remain essential to meeting America’s energy needs.
Who's the threat to national security now?
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