'Multiple challenges' warning as IEA slashes offshore wind forecast
International Energy Agency cuts previous expectations by 27%
Offshore wind faces “multiple challenges” and is now an outlier in terms of developer sentiment to renewables, claimed the International Energy Agency (IEA) as it slashed growth forecasts for the industry.
The global energy body now expects offshore wind to add 140GW globally by 2030. That’s still double the previous five-year period’s growth but 27% lower than the IEA was forecasting just a year ago as it cited a range of factors it says are putting the squeeze on the sector.
The report added that in offshore wind “several developers reduced their 2030 deployment targets. Lower expectations are driven by the policy shift in the United States and project cancellations and delays in Europe, Japan and India due to higher costs and supply chain challenges”.
Unsurprisingly, the IEA flags a particularly grim near-term outlook for offshore wind in the US where Donald Trump’s war on wind is challenging additions both on land and sea. The IEA cut its five-year US capacity growth forecast for wind as a whole by almost 60%, or 57GW, citing early phase out of federal incentives, and permitting and leasing restrictions.
Offshore wind also faces challenges, however, in China, currently the engine of growth for the sector. The IEA said a policy shift towards contracts for difference (CfD)-based support is likely to hit the sector.
The offshore wind downgrade helped drive an overall 5% cut in renewables deployment expectation to 2030.
The IEA now sees global clean power capacity growing by 4,600GW in the five-year period, dominated by solar PV.
The Agency draws a contrast between a relatively optimistic view among developers and supply chain that’s still under big pressure.
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