Policy

'Really stressful': fears grow that new offshore wind star Poland won't deliver

With major investments already made, there is no sign of regulatory progress over a crucial first CfD tender this year

Polish leader Donald Tusk.
Polish leader Donald Tusk.Photo: European Union
European Editor, Recharge
Fears are growing that Poland could fail to carry out its promised first contract for difference (CfD) tender for offshore wind sites in the Baltic Sea this year in what would be a major blow to investors, domestic and European wind sources told Recharge.
Poland under its previous – and less renewables-friendly – government announced plans to tender off 4GW of offshore wind capacity each this year and in 2027, followed by 2GW each in 2029 and 2031, cementing its reputation as Europe's most promising new offshore wind market.
The European Commission has already been notified of the Polish tendering schedule, but the current government of centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk inexplicably has dragged out an amendment to current regulations that is crucial for a first tender to happen, industry bodies warned.

“Without clear regulation the tender won’t work, and we will miss [the auctioning of] 4GW of offshore wind in 2025,” Janusz Gajowiecki, the president of the Polish wind energy association (PWEA), said on the sidelines of an offshore ports event in Szczecin, adding that the industry is struggling to understand why not even a consultation process on the tendering rules has yet been started.

Eastern and central Europe’s biggest company by revenue, partially state-owned refiner Orlen, at the same event, told Recharge it plans to bid in the 2025 tender with a 1GW project.

After the consultation, the amended offshore wind regulation needs to be prepared by Poland’s climate ministry. It then will have to be approved by the cabinet and parliament, even before relevant IT and other mechanisms are put in place by the government agency carrying out the tender.

The fact that all of those steps are still missing while the first quarter advances “is not a good sign for the investment in 2025, and it's very clear that the auction needs to take place this year,” Gajowiecki told Recharge.

“We have made an agreement with the European Commission in 2022 and now we have to keep putting pressure on the government to draft this regulation.”

WindEurope deputy CEO Malgosia Bartosik at the same event pointed out that companies have already spent large amounts of money betting on smooth sailing for Poland’s planned 12GW second wave of offshore wind expansion.

Investments include a recent refurbishment of the port of Swinoujsce in northwestern Poland to become an offshore wind installation hub, as well as a Vestas nacelle factory that is just ramping up in nearby Szczecin. Spanish company Windar is also about to start construction on an offshore wind tower factory in Szczecin that is slated to start operations in 2026, with spending slated to exceed €100m.

“There's a big discrepancy between Poland's ambition to become an offshore [wind] hub, to having the Polish supply chain heavily involved in this new industry that we are creating, that is being created in Europe right now,” Bartosik told Recharge, and on the other hand the government not understanding “that any type of investors, any type of investment, [needs] long-term visibility.”

The industry only knows what will happen in the next two to three years, but not in the longer term, she added.

“This is crucial [not only] for current investment, but also for new investment to come. And it seems the Polish Government has a huge appetite for it.”

A 5.9GW ‘first wave’ of Polish offshore wind projects is currently in development, with offshore installation about to start at first wind farms. Those projects had been granted CfDs without a tender by the Polish energy regulator in 2021. But the 12GW ‘second wave’ depends on the upcoming CfD auctions.

“It's a really stressful situation for the Polish industry at the moment,” Gajowiecki added.

PWEA even sees a larger potential and reckons 33GW of wind capacity could be built in the Polish part of the Baltic Sea by 2040.

(Copyright)

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Published 3 February 2025, 08:03Updated 3 February 2025, 08:03
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