Does Dutch government collapse point to stagnation or opportunity for offshore wind?

The Netherlands, which has long been known as one of the fastest-growing offshore wind markets in the world, recently put the brakes on its expansion of wind at sea and downsized its tender plans.

Could the collapse of the government coalition last week trigger an even greater slowdown, or will a new government following likely snap elections after the summer light the fireworks of the Dutch North Sea wind expansion again?

The current Dutch political crisis started when former prime minister and current Nato secretary general Mark Rutte in 2023 resigned over a welfare payments scandal and a row over refugee policies,

Seven months of complicated coalition building between the PVV, Rutte’s conservative-liberal VVD, a centrist party and the fellow populist Farmers and Citizens’ Movement (BBB) followed, and a government characterised from the onset by internal division took office in July 2024.

Wilders' radical anti-Islam rhetoric proved too much to swallow for the more centrist parts of the coalition, a more moderate path was trodden by technocrat Dick Schoof as prime minister.

But Wilders continued to scheme against the government and his party finally ushered in its collapse last week.

Schoof handed in his resignation on Wednesday but will remain caretaker prime minister until snap elections are held, which Dutch media expect to be held in the autumn.

Climate minister Sophie Hermans managed to push through another offshore wind tender this year, but its volume was cut to 1GW, down from the 3GW previously envisaged.

The Nederwiek 1-A site will now be auctioned off with only half the volume that was originally planned, while the government has postponed the tender of the 2GW Ijmuiden Ver (Far) area.

The previous government, under Rutte, expected another 10GW of wind at sea to be needed for the decarbonisation of industry alone by 2030, but such efforts have stalled, Dutch wind lobby NedZero said.

“Next to that, higher cost of wind farms and greater risks also play a big role. For many developers, there is no business case.”

A smaller site diminishes the exposure and makes it easier to bid, he added. Only consortia would have been able to bid for the 2GW Ijmujiden Ver Gamma A and B area.

The Dutch sustainable energy association (NVDE) called on parliament to continue with the energy transition in the interim period as the wait for a new government to take office could take many months, depending on electoral outcomes.

“Don’t let the Netherlands become a Netherlands where big things get stuck,” NVDE chairman Olof van der Gaag said.

“To move forward, we need a lot of 'yes': concrete and practical measures for the energy transition, for example.”

The group said the offshore wind expansion was one of the key areas that must advance.

Current opinion polls point to growing disenchantment among the electorate with Wilders’ party.

While previously far ahead of its rivals, the PVV is now backed by about 20% of voters — the same percentage as each the VVD or the opposition Labour/Green alliance led by former EU Climate Commissioner Frans Timmermans would gather.

As the BBB vote also weakens very much, a Timmermans-led government might be possible.

Timmermans, during his time at the European Commission, was one of the key facilitators of the EU’s Green Deal, and if elected, he would be a guarantor of a resumption of an energy transition and the offshore wind build-out in the fast lane.

But the vote is still several months away, and the campaign may be dominated by a shrill anti-immigrant campaign by Wilders, so a victory of the more progressive camp led by Timmermans cannot be taken for granted.