Mingyang poised for 6GW UK wind turbine deal as developers warm to Chinese

Mingyang is edging towards a preferred supplier agreement for up to 6GW of floating capacity from a single developer in Scotland, rekindling a debate about whether the Chinese OEM could — or should — go ahead with a mooted wind turbine factory in Europe's leading national market for offshore wind.

Cerulean Winds, a UK-headquartered developer of clean energy infrastructure, acquired three leases under Crown Estate Scotland’s Innovation and Targeted Oil & Gas (INTOG) leasing round in 2023.

Under the INTOG framework, each of the three areas — now known respectively as Aspen, Beech and Cedar — was nominated with 1GW of capacity, geared toward decarbonising offshore oil and gas production.

Cerulean has since advanced plans for potentially doubling capacity on all three areas by making adjustments in turbine capacity and the density of distribution, subject to approvals.

“We think we may get closer to 6GW,” Cerulean Winds representative Andrew Barrie told a project update session at last week's Floating Offshore Wind conference and exhibition in Aberdeen.

Cerulean, which was founded by oil sector veterans Dan Jackson and Mark Dixon, has moved more quickly than most developers in working toward supplier agreements on Scottish floating wind projects. Among these, Mingyang has been lined up to win a bumper order for 18MW-rated wind turbines.

While all three sites were chosen for their proximity to oil and gas producing assets, plans show Aspen advancing first, with an early development phase targeted for 2028/29. These plans include an HVAC transmission line from Aspen, which is closer to the Scottish coast, and HVDC lines from Cedar and Beech.

In the case of Beech, plans include a potential HVDC transmission line to Germany, in a further reflection of the vision of a 6GW project.

Critical path

Decarbonisation commitments by oil companies engaged with the INTOG process demand at least part of this capacity to be in place by 2030, presenting a critical path for supply chain development for such projects.

“We have a supply chain ready to deliver pre-2030. In respect of wind turbines, as many of you will know, that is a challenging timescale. So we've engaged with Mingyang, and we are aiming towards a preferred supplier agreement by the end of the current year,” Barrie said in Aberdeen.

"What we're looking at here are three floating offshore wind farms on a massive scale. In order to meet the targets (for oil and gas decarbonisation), we plan to be in the water with our first floaters in 2028 and we will then have a continual program of eight to nine years of development," Barrie said.

The INTOG bid detailing three 1GW projects would point to 165 wind turbine generators, but Cerulean's expansive plans for each area could mean a doubling of this total to 330 turbines, Barrie said, adding that the company sees that little prospect of deliverability from traditional Western OEMs on this timescale.

After over a year of engagement with Mingyang he added that Cerulean “has been very impressed" by the Chinese company's professionalism.

'Delivery consortium'

Progress toward a preferred supplier agreement with Mingyang forms part of Cerulean's broader "delivery consortium" strategy based mainly on the engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) contractual model.

Barrie highlighted a preferred supplier agreement that has been in place with US engineering firm NOV for more than two years as pivotal to the developer’s fast-moving delivery and engagement strategy.

Cerulean Offshore has already signalled that it wants to carry out floater assembly in Scotland.

“Early selection of floating foundation was key to us as it is at the heart of the technical solution,” he said.

Describing NOV as "experts in semi submersible structures" Barrie described how the US company has been repurposing intellectual property and know-how from oil and gas projects to deliver a floater for offshore wind that facilitates fabrication on a large scale.

Citing supply and logistics are key success factors, Barrie cited consideration of aspects like maximising flat panel steel fabrication to make floaters at this scale more readily deliverable.

Other preferred supplier agreements in place include Siemens Energy (electrical transmission) and Worley, (systems engineer and interface manager). The developer has also engaged delivery partners for transport and installation as well as marshalling.

Mingyang 'Made in UK'?

While the initial phase of Aspen's development points to imported wind turbines, an order on the scale sought is reviving discussions about a possible Mingyang wind turbine factory in the UK.

A project as large as Cerulean's could feasibly serve as an anchor for an investment of this kind, Barrie acknowledged.

"If we can get this industry going within this timescale, there is huge inward investment opportunity for Scotland and the UK more generally. Not only would this significantly support decarbonisation and energy security but what it also does for economic growth is substantial as well," he commented.

Not welcome?

The idea of a Mingyang turbine factory in the UK is not universally welcomed, however, with the head of the WindEurope industry lobby group Giles Dickson arguing that such developments could “undermine the entire European wind power supply chain” and were "not needed".

UK wind turbine manufacturing capacity currently includes a Siemens Gamesa facility in Hull and a Vestas plant on the Isle of Wight, and the latter has been mulling a Scottish factory.

He said this is a matter of due diligence whenever public money is involved in decisions, and, when asked about the geopolitical implications, added: "All legitimate issues and considerations have to be looked at fully and completely to be sure we are coming to the correct decisions about particular investments."

Green Volt choice

Another Scottish floating wind project aiming to get turbines in the water in the 2028/2029 window is Green Volt, a 560MW INTOG project that is the result of a partnership between Flotation Energy and Vargronn, a joint venture between Plenitude and HitecVision.

Green Volt gained impetus in September by winning a 400MW contract under the UK's latest Contracts for Difference (CfD), putting the consortium "on a track to become Europe's first commercial scale floating wind farm".

The Green Volt partners are yet to announce any key procurement decisions — with visible progress so far limited to front-end engineering and design contracts for an HVAC transmission line and substation jacket — but several preferred supplier agreements are expected over the next 18 months, including turbines.

On the general principle of direct investment and the prospects of a Mingyang factory Bull commented : "It's a tough market in terms of capacity for turbine manufacturing, and we would like to see more investments, particularly in the UK, from the turbine manufacturers, wherever that comes from. This is something that the whole industry is interested in, not just ourselves."

"I think any investment made from the turbine OEMs is welcome to be honest and I think the UK government is very open to such investments in the country."

Industrial plan

The UK's Labour government has promised to put offshore wind, and related direct investment, at the centre of its plans for developing a net zero economy and creating jobs in clean energy, but is still fleshing out the details of this.

MP Bill Esterson, who will chair the future parliamentary energy security and net zero committee described the promise of a long-term approach to industrial policy as a "welcome change" in the UK.

Asked about the prospect of a Mingyang factory, he said, "In principle, why not?"

"I have heard questions asked in the past — in the steel industry for example — about what might happens if local capacity is subsequently closed down, leaving you dependent on production and technology from China.

"As committee chair I will be looking for evidence and supporting ideas on such matters," he added.

Some industry leaders have expressed surprise at the idea of resisting direct investment, just because it is from China.

"The UK was the pioneer in offshore wind and still the leader when you look at all the projects, so I'm always a bit puzzled to see that there are not more industries. This is a large, sustainable market, that can justify huge investment by itself," commented TotalEnergies' head of development for offshore wind in Europe, Edouard Bourdin.

"A Mingyang factory in Scotland would be a case of foreign investors coming to a country and creating jobs. Surely this is what you want."

The Chinese wind power group has already moved forward with similar plans in the heart of the European Union after signing signed a front-end engineering design (FEED) contract ahead of promised deploymnet of 18.8MW turbines for Italian developer's Med Wind project