Trump triggers offshore wind outlook downgrade but Asian newcomers reach breakthrough

“Offshore wind is powering into a new era. With 83GW installed, offshore wind is already keeping the lights on for 73 million households, providing hundreds of thousands of jobs and boosting economic growth,” GWEC deputy CEO Rebecca Williams said.

“The fundamentals of offshore wind remain rock solid, and countries around the world – from Brazil to Australia – are backing offshore wind to deliver clean, secure, home-grown energy at scale.

“Of course, the sector has faced challenges, and in particular, policy instability in the US has had a significant impact, as well as failed auctions in mature markets.”

Despite the lower short-term outlook, annual growth rates are still expected to be 28% until 2029, and 15% up to 2034, pushing annual additions to above 50GW by 2033.

Near-term growth will be concentrated in the already established markets in Europe and China, GWEC forecasts, while wind at sea is seen pushing into new regions in Asia-Pacific and Latin America.

Government offshore wind auctions awarded 56GW of new capacity last year, a record figure, while the industry is already constructing another 48GW, also a record. Europe led the way, with 23.2GW awarded, while China followed with another 17.4GW.

A next wave of markets also had landmark years with South Korea awarding 3.3GW, Taiwan 2.7GW and Japan 1.4GW.

In Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, Australia, Brazil and Colombia, governments are working with the sector to establish policies and regulations to fast-track offshore wind. This signals policymakers' commitment and sets the stage for the sector’s next wave of market expansion, GWEC notes.

"We believe that to fully unlock the large-scale deployment potential of offshore wind, global supply chain collaboration is crucial,” Mingyang Smart Energy president and CTO Zhang Qiying said.

“We call on all parties to work closely together to drive the next wave of offshore wind growth worldwide."

Hugely successful in its Chinese home market, Zhang’s company is currently trying to break into European offshore wind markets. But it is meeting the resistance from a large part of the European offshore wind industry, which fears possible Chinese threats to cybersecurity and cheap competition that may be financed by inexpensive loans from state banks.

China last year led offshore wind additions, with 50.5% of the 8GW installed globally, followed by the UK with 14.7%, Taiwan with 11.6% and Germany with 9.1%.

China also topped the ranking of the world’s cumulated offshore wind installations, accounting for 50.3% of 83.2GW, followed by the UK with 19.2%, Germany with 10.9% and the Netherlands with 5.9%.

China and Europe will continue to dominate offshore wind growth going forward, but their global market share in cumulative installations is expected to drop to 89% in 2029 and 84% in 2034, GWEC said. The reason for this is an expected growth in markets outside the two key markets in APAC, North America and Latin America.

“With record levels of construction and auctions, 2025 is a pivotal year. This is the moment for industry and governments to come together, knuckle down and deliver the next stage of offshore wind’s growth,” Williams said.