US offshore wind puts on brave face, but Trump victory 'doesn't bode well' for industry: analysts
Renewables advocates highlight growth of clean energy under president-elect's first term while opponents are bolstered by his sector antagonism
Offshore wind groups put on a brave face on Donald Trump's election as US president amid fears his administration would halt federal permitting and leasing, moves that could discourage supply chain investment over the next four years.
Liz Burdock, CEO of Oceantic Network, congratulated the president-elect on his “historic political comeback” and credited him with kickstarting an industry closely associated with Joe Biden, who will leave office 20 January.
“Eight years ago, the first Trump administration laid out the fundamental framework for our modern offshore wind industry,” Burdock said, noting that seven offshore wind leases were sold, netting the federal government $456m and sparking what now stands at $40bn in supply chain investments.
“With President Trump in office, we have the opportunity to harness even more investment and measurable economic benefits for communities across the country,” she added.
American Clean Power Association (ACP) was equally optimistic that renewable energy would flourish under Trump.
“Our industry grew by double digits each year under the first Trump Administration and has accelerated this rate of progress since,” said ACP CEO Jason Grumet.
“We are committed to working with the Trump-Vance Administration and the new Congress to continue this great American success story.”
Biden's industry
US offshore wind launched in 2005 under former Republican president George W. Bush, with sector leasing beginning in 2014 under Barack Obama, a Democrat.
Yet, the industry will be linked with Biden, who galvanised development with a 30GW by 2030 goal and extensive lease sales and project permitting.
His administration quickly approved Vineyard Wind 1, the nation’s first commercial-scale project, after denial of an environmental review by Trump regulators.
Lead federal regulator Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), which remained without a director for the duration of Trump’s first term, has under Biden approved 10 projects totalling some 15GW of capacity.
Philip Totaro, CEO of research consultancy IntelStor, forecast that Trump’s near-term impacts would likely be “minimal if Biden can get lame duck approvals pushed through BOEM before January.”
BOEM’s ambitious slate of 12 offshore wind auctions planned between 2025 – 2028 will likely not move forward, Totaro believes.
This will "stall out the market's growth potential and limit capital investments in factories because supply chain companies will not receive enough order book to justify the expenditure.”
Legal pullback
Another industry wild card is the spate of lawsuits against the federal government regarding its project approvals. Nearly all approved projects have attracted litigation which are defended by lawyers from the Department of Justice (DoJ) under direct control of the president.
“Given what Trump has been saying about offshore wind, I don't think it bodes well for the future of the Vineyard Wind project or for any of the other offshore wind projects that are in various stages of development up and down the Atlantic coast,” said Ted Hadzi-Antich, senior attorney for conservative think tank Texas Public Policy Foundation (TPPF).
Paul Weiland, partner in law firm Nossaman’s Environment & Land Use practice, suggested that offshore wind won’t be a “high priority for a Trump White House relative to other policy areas.”
Weiland noted that key appointees, such as the leadership positions at Department of Interior, BOEM’s parent, and the DoJ “likely will be consequential”.