World to ‘double but not triple’ wind power by 2030 under national targets
China is dragging the rest of the world along with it with its spectacular renewable energy growth, finds Ember analysis
Government targets will see the world more than double but not triple wind power by 2030, falling comfortably short of the goal set by global leaders at the COP28 climate summit, new analysis shows.
If current national targets are met – and that is a big if – there will be a 2.4x increase in installed wind power capacity by 2030, climate think tank Ember said in a report today.
“Governments are lacking ambition on wind, and especially onshore wind,” said Ember electricity analyst Katye Altieri.
“Amidst the hype of solar, wind is not getting enough attention, even though it provides cheap electricity and complements solar.”
Global leaders at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai last year pledged to triple renewable energy capacity worldwide to 11TW by the end of the decade.
Over 90% of the renewable capacity growth is expected to be from solar and wind, with leaders aiming to triple wind from 901GW in 2022 to 2,742GW in 2030. This would mean wind generates 19% of global electricity supply by the end of the decade, said Ember.
Current national wind targets from 70 countries and one region assessed in the Ember report will see wind reach 2,157GW by 2030 – a 585GW gap from the global target.
Forecasts agree that global wind power capacity should reach 2,100GW by 2030 but Ember said this is “primarily achievable” due to the large capacity additions forecast in China.
Although it only accounts for 37% of global wind targets, China is forecast to install over 50% of global wind additions between 2024 and 2030, said Ember. “China is overachieving on its target and is forecast to almost triple wind capacity from 2022 to 2030.”
This shows that other countries “must increase ambition” in their own wind power buildouts, said Ember.